As per the news item in Business Line (read it here), the Modified Credit Ratio (MDR) has improved to 1.1 in 2010-11. MCR is defined by CRISIL as ratio of number of companies whose ratings have been upgraded to number of companies whose ratings have been downgraded.
While the ratio does give an indication of how the credit quality of India Inc is moving about, I believe a better indication of the same comes from looking at the probability of downgrades/upgrades expected in the India Inc’s rating profile. We are aware of the pros and cons of posterior and apriori estimations and expected probabilities based on historical data tend to give a better indication.
These probabilities are shared by CRISIL in its annual report Insight in Risk (the 2009 report can be seen here). While the report for the year 2010 hasn’t been released on its website, one can look at the numbers in 2008 and 2009 report which give something of the following results. The total probability of downgrades has moved from 11.7% in 2008 to 11.5% in 2009 while the probability of upgrades has moved from 2.9% to 2.7% over the same period. (These are basis the long term rating transition data)
This to me indicates more stability in credit ratings of the India Inc.
While I could not catch any glimpse of Anna in my 30 minute visit to the crowded Jantar Mantar, I am back with mixed thoughts on this whole issue that has ultimately ended.
Back in school in the subject of “Civics” we learnt that democracy was “of the people, by the people and for the people”. And I grew up believing that democratic countries were actually ruled by the common people, notwithstanding booth-capturing, election murders in a country that prides itself with world’s oldest “civil”ization.
This episode of Anna’s fast seemed that there is indeed a glass wall and a thick one between a democratically elected government and the people, the people who all the way thought that the government is their own, comprising their own people! Maybe that’s the reason why any act against government can be classified as treason! But this act of Anna seemed to be a wave without any treason but to immense discomfort of political powers, mute leaders, potential leaders who believe they received people’s support in legacy, leaders in opposition who think they are there just to oppose and all these who join together across hues/hate when it comes to issues like hike in politicians’ salaries and disclosure of assets and wash down the drain huge proportion of common man’s earnings by stalling parliament! And all this in the name of the common man, fondly referred to as the Mango-admi
This guy Anna, has indeed given this Mango-admi a hint that this mango is actually no alphonso that these politicians can keep sucking on forever!
But here I am now, trying to play a sort of spoilsport much before the party has ended. What makes me think of playing so?
- The so common short-memory of the Indian mango. Will Monday be just another day? But I think the role of media is more dependable in this as memory of mangoes is as good as the memory of media and I hope our media too sheds off its label of irresponsibility and join together to keep this memory alive and keep it going to its logical end without worrying for the TRPs
- With the notification in place and eminent personalities Pranab Mukherjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Shanti Bhushan, we can rest assured that the bill will now address the issue of corruption without any loopholes (known till date, India is good at jugaad). But my concern is, its implementation. Our constitution is said to be amongst the best in the world that has succeeded in keeping together a nation of diversity but its implementation is pathetic evidenced by heap of pending cases in courts, illiteracy, hunger, terrorism and of course, corruption. Other policy documents, be it financial inclusion, employment generation were wonderful pieces of just literature as their implementation was an utter failure. Maybe the bill would do well if a separate arm of judicial system is created that hears corruption cases only on the lines of DRTs in banking system, and also it strictly forbids any person to contest elections with criminal record. I know this would then give an exponential rise to allegations and false filing of cases and we may be back to square one (hence this spoil-sportsman spirit of mine)
- The man I am fond of is part of this agreed committee but from the “other” side, if I think to stand myself by Anna. Pranab da has time and again shown his deftness with drafting government papers and the Mango’s representatives will have to be wary of him and his words – both written and even spoken. He needs to be kept under reigns.
- Now the one thought you may hate me for. How many of the guys on the dias were there without any vested interest (political or otherwise) and yes, I do dare to include Anna. It’s no more a secret that Nehru was a stickler to Gandhi despite his often divergent views because he cherished his dream of being the PM of India while Subhash Chandra Bose had no second thoughts of deserting Gandhi on what he thought was right even though he knew masses will do what Gandhi will ask them to do. We all know it’s neither difficult nor a big deal in making a fool of the Mango.
I now wait to see how many of the above thoughts of mine are proven wrong. I will be happy with each thought shattered to pieces, but will be delighted if the last thought is crushed because my trust on Darwin’s homo-sapiens is already at its nadir.
A nice article by Mr Muhammad Yunus on Micro finance (you can read it here) and whats ails it or rather what went wrong. While he sights examples across the world, I guess in India among other reasons for the model failing to succeed is that the borrowers attitude (esp the low ticket, vote bank borrowers) has been shaped so by the power hungry politicians. Borrowers still believe that repaying bank loan is not required having experienced loan-waivers atleast thrice on large scale and many times at local levels.
The concept of micro-finance is a definite answer to financial inclusion and broadbased growth but only when the bottom of the pyramid acknowledges that it has some responsibilities towards sustenance of the growth it is also a part of!
